China’s exports plummeted in January, the latest sign of the sharp downturn in demand that has hit Asian economies hard and slowed China’s once-booming economy and fanned concerns of growing joblessness and social unrest.
The 17.5 percent decline from a year earlier was worse than most analysts had projected and could dash hopes among some economists, based on recent initial purchasing mangers’ surveys and bank lending data, that the downturn had begun to bottom out.
The data indicate "continuing deterioration in the underlying fundamentals," Qing Wang, an economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, said in a note.
The decline, which was also far worse than the 2.8 percent drop recorded in December, was exacerbated by the timing of Chinese New Year holiday. The week-long festival took place in January this year; last year, it was in February.
Analysts broadly agree, however, that the Chinese economy remains more resilient than many in the region, and that the authorities have plenty of room to beef up the already considerable stimulus measures and rate cuts they have announced in recent months.
“While the recent export slowdown has been alarming, China’s export slump has not been as severe as in some neighboring countries with a greater reliance on high-tech exports,” Jing Ulrich, at JP Morgan in Hong Kong, said in a research note cited by Reuters.
"The biggest uncertainty surrounding China’s trade performance remains in the external environment,” he said “Despite potential tax cuts and stimulus measures in key overseas markets, the outlook for global consumption remains bleak. Exports are likely to remain lackluster until global consumers regain their appetite for consumption.”
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